Microsoft’s new Metro style GUI in Windows will not support plug-ins anymore. After Apple, Microsoft is second to be dropping plug-in architecture and decides to rely on HTML5 technologies only. Is Adobe’s Flash era now officially ending and what do we make of this trend?
<p>Windows 8 Start Screen</p>
“Reimagine” is the keyword that could describe Microsoft’s product and business strategy these days. We heard phrases such as reimagining Windows and even “reimagining Microsoft”. There appears to be a tabula rasa approach that favors out-of-the-box thinking to leave the past behind. Microsoft is taking risks again, which brings benefits and downsides. If Microsoft changes, it will, conceivably, require an entire industry to change.
The Impact of Windows 8
Some readers have questioned our opinion that Microsoft is betting “everything” on touch, based on the fact that the Metro GUI in Windows 8 can be dropped and replaced with the traditional desktop GUI. However, we question the value of Windows 8 without the Metro GUI, which would come down to system resource savings. Microsoft is heavily pitching the Metro touch interface and is positioning the new design as the main selling point. Without Metro, Windows 8 loses its face and turns into just another evolutionary Windows update.
Windows 8 is everything but evolutionary. For Microsoft, it is as disruptive as the original Windows that introduced mouse/keyboard control. Now Microsoft sees us using primarily touch as input method, while a keyboard and mouse are complementary at best. We will have to see how this idea plays out, but if Microsoft has its way, then we will be using only touch interfaces beginning next year. It is pure speculation how well Windows 8 will be selling and how much perceived value it will offer to Windows 7 PCs that do not integrate touch screens. Our opinion here is that the success of Windows 8 will largely depend on the innovation pace in the hardware industry.
Windows 7 has sold about 450 million units in 22 months and just surpassed Windows XP in usage share, Microsoft said. Windows 7 will be a massive challenge for Microsoft as Windows 7 is not only an upgrade for Windows Vista, but an upgrade for Windows XP as well. Microsoft is currently building a huge user base that is used to sticking to an operating system for several years and it may be especially difficult to convince those users to upgrade again after just two or three years.
The Impact of IE9 / IE10
Windows president Steven Sinofsky yesterday announced that there will be no plug-in support in Windows 8 (Metro). If we assume that Metro will be the primary Windows 8 interface and Metro will be the way Microsoft will be going forward, then there are huge implications for plug-in vendors. IE without plug-ins is a big deal, especially since Microsoft still holds about 42% browser market share. The number is high enough to provide a compelling reason to drop web development that depends on plug-ins such as Flash and Silverlight now.
Of course, the plug-in free browser experience does not stretch across the entire IE ecosystem, but is limited to IE10. Those developers who want to continue with Flash content will have to begin guessing just how significant the Metro interface will be in Windows 8. At the very least, Windows 8 touch users will be cut out of Flash content immediately.
I am borrowing a chart we posted yesterday to show how Windows and IE installation rates correlate. The dotted line in the chart shows a pretty linear growth rate for Windows 7, while IE8 and IE9 stagnate. Chrome is added as a comparison. Windows 7 suggests that Microsoft cannot count on the fact that Windows 8 users will be using IE10 by default, if there is not a very compelling reason to do so and if users are not forced to used IE10. Within Windows 7, Microsoft was able to gain the lead with IE9, but Chrome is a close second (20% vs. 18% share, according to Net Applications) and Firefox is not far behind either. If the most recent trend will hold up, then we can assume that the usage share of IE10 on Windows 8 could remain in the 20 – 30% range of Windows 8 market share, which may be a very compelling number, as long as Windows 8 sells as well as Windows 7 does. However, if viewed in total web market share, IE10 share is unlikely to be significant, especially since it is closely tied to Windows 8. It is rather unlikely that IE10 will reach more than 10% total browser market share within one year after launch and not more than 20% within 24 months following launch on traditional PCs. ARM Windows 8 devices, however, could shift that share substantially in the favor of Microsoft.
The Bottom Line
If you have applications that depend on plug-ins such as Flash, there is no reason to panic yet. While the writing is on the wall, It will take a few years until Flash will die. Flash apps have lost Apple users already and they will be losing Windows 8 early adopters next. A core user base is likely to stay with Flash for at least another 5 to 7 years, while the mainstream will begin shifting away from HTML5 in 2013 and 2014, at least if Microsoft has its way. It is unclear which route Google and Firefox will be going, but there is little doubt that HTML5 is the replacement for plug-ins. If you rely on plug-ins to make your app run, it is a good time to start thinking about a HTML5 transition soon.
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