Mozilla has successfully released its first rapid release cycle version of Firefox. While Mozilla is proud, there has been criticism that the new version number cannot be justified given the new features in Firefox 5. The transition also screwed corporate users and there is mounting disapproval close to Mozilla that the current product plan is beneficial to Firefox. Should Mozilla roll back its release strategy?

Mozilla may have triggered an avalanche that it hardly controlled anymore. Firefox 5 was launched in time, but without the necessary support of marketing and features, which resulted in doubt that the new release process actually benefits Mozilla. More frequent updates and add-ons as well as applications that reach deep into the code of Firefox are now upsetting IT managers who deploy Firefox in corporate environments, who say that they won’t be able to keep up with Firefox’ new release schedule. Mozilla reacted in a clumsy way and alienated its corporate users, which caused not only Microsoft to jump on an unexpected opportunity, but prompted some Mozilla supporters to criticize the company’s product strategy.

We should remember that Mozilla just released Firefox 5 and the full effect of the rapid release process will not be seen until users understand the new product strategy, which is more likely to happen when we get Firefox 6 or 7 within the next 3 months. But it would be wrong to say that there is undivided support for the new Firefox and some may wonder if this rapid release cycle was such a great idea and if it has been implemented in the best way possible.

Firefox 4: Mozilla’s Windows Vista?

Firefox 4 was a rather astonishing announcement in May of 2010 and resulted from what originally was targeted to become Firefox 3.7. However, Mozilla was surprised by the aggressive browser development pace at Microsoft and Google, which forced the company to create a much more comprehensive update that ended in an almost never-ending beta phase and a final product that was released 6 months behind schedule. By the time Firefox 4 was released, it was already an old product. It was downloaded in huge numbers (about 228 million total), but we know that virtually all downloads were replacement downloads of existing users and Firefox 4 was not able to gain additional users. It was the first version of Firefox that could not bump Mozilla’s browser market share during the initial release time frame, according to StatCounter data.

In effect, Firefox 4 was handicapped with an old software upgrade mechanism that promotes a fragmentation of browser versions, as it relied almost exclusively on a user’s effort to manually request the update. Despite its substantial improvements over Firefox 3.6, there is still a considerable user base of Firefox 3.6, which is in line with previous product transitions, which suggests that a typical Firefox version needed about 4-6 months to be phased out and reduce its user base to the 2 -3% market share range.

Mozilla may have marketed Firefox 4 as a successful browser, but it is also clear that Firefox 4 was the first Firefox version that could not exceed the current Chrome version in market share (according to StatCounter) and there is no denying that Firefox 4 caused Mozilla to lose market share overall. Between the launch of Firefox 4 on March 22 and the launch of Firefox 5 on June 21, Mozilla lost about 3 points in market share, according to StatCounter. There are many ways to describe a product as either successful or as a failure, depending on your view, but the bottom line is that the Firefox 4 market share development in no way justified the effort that was put in Firefox 4 and significant strategic errors have been made during the release process of the browser. Most importantly, Firefox 4 should have been released in October 2010, not in March 2011.

 

Firefox 5: Who are you?

Of course, we know that the browser market changed more than once during the months Mozilla developed Firefox 4. We know that Google’s rapid release cycle has given Google’s users a compelling argument to ultimately stick with Chrome. A browser that is updated more frequently tends to have the perception of a more modern, up-to-date, more secure browser with an overall fresher appearance. Not surprisingly, Mozilla decided to apply a rapid release cycle as well, which is really just a custom version of an agile software release strategy (iterate often to improve your product).

One of the main goals of this new release process is to deliver new software features much faster and when they are done, without having to wait for other new features to be completed. The actual version number of Firefox is less important and there are, by default, fewer new features in each version than before.

However, there is always a user perception that Mozilla cannot ignore and it is obvious that Mozilla has neglected the way it communicates with users and media. Mozilla mentioned in the Firefox 5 announcement that more than 1000 changes had taken place over version 4, but there was no single headline feature that could have prompted users to upgrade to this new version immediately.

There are a few hidden new features in Firefox 5 no one talks about and few really know about – such as idle connection tuning that has an impact on web developers and how they design web pages. There are clearly significant features in Firefox, but the lack of communication especially from the product team has created a browser version few can understand. It’s a browser that lacks identity and seems to have only been released because it was June 21 and the calendar dictated the release. That cannot be the right approach.

 

 

Fallout: If you don’t like us, take a hike

As part of the rapid release cycle, Mozilla announced that it won’t be supporting version 4 anymore as far as security updates are concerned and if you want those patches, you will have to move to version 5. That is ok for home users, but it kills the deal for business users. IBM apparently was just ready to deploy Firefox 4.01 and had changed hundreds of support documents when it heard the bad news from Mozilla. You could always claim that corporations will have to go with the flow and just deal with faster release cycles, but that is not the way it works in reality. There are production and usage processes in place that impact potentially thousands of users and millions of dollars in resources, services and products if something breaks. It is common knowledge that businesses standardize their software to make sure that their process works. Browsers are critical components of business software today.

After a valid complaint, Mozilla basically told corporate users to stop whining and take a hike. IBM’s 500,000 users are, according to Mozilla, are minor and don’t matter in the big picture. However, that opinion has drawn criticism even from Mozilla supporters. It may also be a bit short-sighted as Mozilla’s strategy to sacrifice business in this rapid release cycle will put Firefox in direct competition with Chrome, which is business suicide, given the trend how Mozilla has been surrendering market share to Google. The corporate market has been a stronghold for Mozilla – giving it up will give Microsoft a boost and even enable Google to get its foot into the corporate segment as it is adding more and more corporate policy support to Chrome.

The latest market share numbers from StatCounter suggest that IE is slowly trending down, while Firefox is clearly losing market share and may drop below 28% in the coming week. Chrome, on the other hand, is now well above 20% share and has topped 22% today. Since the release of Firefox 4, Chrome has gained more than 3 points of market share. If the numbers are indicative of the actual trend, then it appears that a portion of Mozilla’s user base is willing to switch and that it will be essential for Mozilla to fist hold on to what it has, before it is thinking about winning market share back. Alienating corporate users is probably not such a great idea right now, especially since businesses generally like Firefox.

 

Admitting mistakes

Let’s not beat around the bush. The rapid release cycle looks good on paper, but it has not been executed very well. No one outside of Mozilla has really a good idea what Firefox 5 really is. There are good reasons why Mozilla needs to adapt a rapid release cycle, but it needs to follow the complete task list and not just part of it. Neglecting the communication with its users was a major letdown as it cut the information line to those that serve as evangelists for Mozilla on the web. The development process is not transparent enough and what is said publicly is not enough. Perhaps Mozilla is overwhelmed by the changes that have been implemented, but it is a critical time for Mozilla in a cut-throat browser-platform war that will require the very best of its talent to be able to survive.

Mozilla will have to correct the mistakes that have been made, and it will have to evaluate the benefits of the rapid release cycle process, which appears to trade a huge loyal user base for an opportunity to attract a moody user base that is willing to switch a browser brand at any time. Compared to Chrome’s release cycle, Mozilla’s process has severe flaws: For example, there may be more product releases, but Google typically updates a stable browser version half a dozen times with security fixes before a completely new version is released. Firefox 4 received just one security update. If Mozilla wants to be like Google and compete with Chrome on Google’s turf, it will have to go all the way and not hope that half the effort will deliver the full reward.

Rolling back the rapid release cycle process may be an option right now. Firefox cannot afford to lose its most loyal users while there is no certainty that it can win them back in other segments.

 

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