Giving Apple credit for reshaping the way we use computers, well at least attempting it, would be a bit too much. Apple simply built a device that was imagined and described in detail in a research paper 38 years ago. Reading that paper is a spooky experience – it is fascinating how closely the author describes what the iPad is today. He even got the price right – almost four decades ago.
Kids using the imaginary Dynabook
I previously attempted to take shot at the iPad’s ancestors. I believe this is a rather difficult task if we look at recent history and really depends on your viewpoint and in this case, you will read what I think. For some reason, you know it is one of those occasions you just get stuck reading late in the day, I stumbled across a fascinating research paper that gets more and more stunning as you read along. It is called “A personal computer for children of all ages” and was published by Alan Kay of the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) back in 1972.
Kay is recognized as one of the first employees of the famous PARC, as key scientist behind the graphical user interface, as one of the inventors of object-oriented programming as well as the expression “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” Today 70 years old, Kay is still working on reshaping computing by researching new methods of programming. Back in 1972, Kay predicted an event 38 years out in the future in great detail. You may even go as far as claiming that Kay gave Apple the idea of the iPad and should be credited to him.
Kay begins his 1972 paper by stating that it speculates “about the emergence of personal, portable information manipulators and their effects when used by both children and adults.” He described his speculation, called the “Dynabook”, as science-fiction, but wrote that “current trends in miniaturization and price reduction almost guarantee that many of the notions discussed will actually happen in the near future.” Near, of course is relative, but I am not aware of any other prediction that has come as close as Kay’s paper.
So let’s look at all the predictions Kay made, what he got right and what he got wrong.
Correct predictions:
- Combination of carry anywhere device and global information utility
- Easy to use for any person, even children
- Millions of potential users
- Flat screen or plasma panel, at least 512×512 pixel resolution and a capability to display 4000 characters per screen page
- Contrast ratio approaching that of a book
- Keyboard with no moving parts
- Single-chip CPU for $40 or less
- Rechargeable battery
- Weight less than 4 lbs
- File storage capacity of at least 500 books or several hours of audio/music
- Capability to maintain and edit files
- High bandwidth wireless data connection of 300 Kb/s or higher
- Network connection with ability to purchase, transfer and download (“instantiate”) files
- Secure payment system
- Global information connectivity, such as libraries
- Video game and entertainment functionality
- Media connectivity
- Network search feature
- Target price of $500
Here is what Kay got wrong, as far as the iPad is concerned:
- Users can write their own programs for the device
- Battery can be recharged via a network connection
- Data input also based on voice input
- Cassette- / floppy-based data storage
- Power only consumed during state changes of the display and not during viewing of content (although this technology already exists today in form of certain epaper devices)
- Kay viewed the Dynabook as a content creation and viewing device, while the iPad is mainly a content viewing device.
Remember these predictions were made when in a time when the phrase “personal computer” needed to be explained, when the word download did not exist and when other visionaries still denied that ordinary people would be using computers in the future. Remember Ken Olson’s (founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corporation) quote from 1977? “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
Granted, Kay got quite a bit wrong, but his vision of a future computer is spooky. If you take it a step further, and believe him that the computer he described in 1972 (some say the idea started forming in 1968) is the PC we will be using in the future, then it would mean that today’s desktop computers and notebooks are just transition devices.
And Apple’s Steve Jobs would be right that the iPad is magical in the sense as it rings in a new age of computing. Ok, let’s not carried away, but it is clear that the iPad has the opportunity to change the look and use of the general basic computing, communication and entertainment device at home.
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