Now: The role of upgrades
Conceivably, today’s browsers are fast enough, at least so fast that you really do not care anymore which one gains a few more points in any test. In fact, if we believe current market growth trends, we may be at the beginning of a new growth phase that will replace the importance of speed. Speed, realistically, will become an expected feature of browsers.
Instead, there are two trends evolving – updates and mobility.
Mozilla was always believed to have an advantage through its extensions, which are now also available for Google’s Chrome browser. Coincidentally, Chrome has shown strong growth since extensions made their debut earlier this year. It does not take much to predict that browser extensions provided by a healthy developer community make a browser much more attractive and that extensions will be a necessary feature for any browser that wants a considerable piece of the market.
However, the most decisive factor in achieving market share may be a fast upgrade cycle, which is one of the most significant differentiators between all browsers. Since the introduction of IE4, Microsoft has never focused on transitioning users quickly to a new version of IE. The result today is a nightmare of three browsers that all hold a significant share of the market and well more than 150 million users each. IE7’s overall market share is rapidly declining: However, IE7’s share of the IE user base dropped only by 55% (from 51.7% to 22.9%). In the same time frame, the share of the outgoing Firefox version 3.0 dropped by 71% (from 86.4% to 14.9%) of the Firefox user base. Also, Mozilla has introduced two new browser versions over the past year, while Microsoft introduced only one.
Apple is marketing its Safari browser in an even more aggressive marketing strategy and is defragmenting its browser base. One year ago, there were three major 3.x versions of Safari in the market, dominated by Version 3.2 and 3.1. At the time, 3.2 was taking over from 3.1 and held about 1.85% of the market and 51% of the Safari user base. Since then, the share of 3.2 has dropped to 0.1% of the market and 2.2% of the Safari base.
Google Chrome version cycle
Google goes one step further and doesn’t even tell its users when the browser is upgraded. The company can upgrade your browser whenever it feels it needs to and makes sure that you always have the most current version, whether you like it or not. The Net Applications data reveal just how aggressive Google pursues this strategy: Chrome 1, which dominated the Chrome user base one year ago with a share of 97% stands at 0.7%, which reflects a drop of the version 1 user base of more than 99%. We are at Chrome 4 today (Chrome 5 beta), reflecting Google’s quick update path. Month to month comparisons are even more impressive: In January, which showed Chrome 3’s highest browser market share with 3.85%, the browser had a 69% share of the Chrome user base. Chrome 4 was released on January 25 and Chrome 3’s share dropped to only 4.8% by the end of February – translating into a 93% base share reduction in 33 days. By the end of March, Chrome 4 retracted to 86% – as the Chrome 5 beta had advanced to 11% of the entire Chrome user base already. It does not get much more effective and the strategy seems to be working for Google: The accelerating update cycle seems to have accelerated the market share growth as well.
The Future: Lean, mean, mobile and the best ad in the world
We are in a quickly environment for web browsers and those who can’t quickly react, will be left in the dust. Microsoft is working on performance, but it appears that speed gains have become a commodity and the company may be, once again, trailing the trend. Instead, we are seeing Google and Mozilla reworking the plug-in model and Google even integrates key software such as Adobe’s Flash into its browser. No matter what is going on between Google and Apple, upgrades of Flash always have been an annoyance, so this is really a no-brainer.
Mozilla is fiercely working on its mobile browser Fennec, which is currently line up for a v1.1 release. This much leaner version of Firefox shifts the paradigm of mobile browsing and is months ahead of its rivals. Given the growth we are seeing in the mobile space and growing requirement for netbooks and tablets, this may be the biggest opportunity to quickly grab market share in the current market.
The desktop browser market is shaping up to be a battlefield that is likely to be dominated by Google and Microsoft. Google is on a pace that the company has been able to sustain for about a year now. Google’s gains almost reflect the losses over at Microsoft: Microsoft currently stands at a market share near 60%, which is the lowest share in almost 15 years, and there is little Microsoft can do about it. IE9 isn’t out yet, but we don’t hold our breath that it will be good enough to counter Chrome’s growth. Add to that the best advertising spot in the world, Google’s front page and you could see that Chrome is set for continued growth and IE may be screwed.
My prediction: If Microsoft is not able to come up with a entirely new browser, Chrome will have surpassed IE in market share by the end of 2013.
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