The IE6 problem

IE6 was released in August 2001, in a time when there was no competition for IE and when its market share was well north of 90%. It was a time when Microsoft convinced not just consumers, but also businesses to use IE6 when they upgraded to Windows XP. That essentially locked companies and Microsoft into IE6 as applications were certified to be used with this browser and a recertification or even a switch to a new browser can be an extremely expensive and time-consuming process. We know that especially businesses use IE6, as Net Applications daily usage data shows that the market share of IE6 is higher during weekdays than on weekends, while all other browsers tend to show higher market shares on weekends.

While IE6’s market share is declining, there is a persistent user base that is either happy with IE6 (especially those businesses that have certified apps or want to limit access to social networks) or that simply does not feel the need for an upgrade or is uncomfortable with the thought of upgrading to a new browser that may break or introduce changes to a familiar software environment.

Microsoft has been trying hard to convince IE6 users to upgrade. We have seen mainly scare campaigns how unsafe the browser is, while some findings – for example from the British government – seem to indicate that a patched IE6 is just as safe as IE8. In some way, Microsoft’s attempts to kill off IE6 have reached a ridiculous level that may show just how desperate the campaign has become. Over the past two months we have seen a sharper drop in IE6 market share and some stronger gains for IE8 as Microsoft has been running TV commercials that advertise IE8 as a software that blocks billions of scams.

IE9: Limited opportunity out of the gate

When Mozilla, Apple, or Google upgrade their browser, the user base switches fairly quickly to a new version thanks to an automated upgrade system that is rather aggressive in Chrome and rather software in Firefox (even if Mozilla will be adjusting the automated upgrade procedure in Firefox 4.) For example, Google has transitioned more than 95% of its Chrome user base to five different browser versions (v1-v5) within 16 months. While Google usually has three different versions of its browser available (stable, beta, developer), it usually needs less than 30 days to transition the majority of its user base from one version to another.

IE8 has been available for 18 months now, but its share is only at 32.04%, of the total 60.40%, which means that IE8 has captured only 53% of the total IE user base, according to Net Applications. IE6 has still about 29%, while IE7 (without fragment versions, which are estimated at about 2-3% market share) is at 11%. When IE8 was launched, I described Microsoft’s launch as a train wreck and given its performance so far, that perception has not changed. Microsoft needs a much better and effective way to upgrade its browsers down the road.

Microsoft’s Ryan Gavin wrote in a recent blog post that “over the past several months, you have seen us talk about some of the ways we’re helping customers get off IE6 and onto IE8 and soon IE9, coming in beta in just a few weeks.  From our work with enterprise customers, to consumer campaigns like adios IE6 and spoiled milk, to joining the fun at the IE6 Funeral – these efforts will continue.” However, that may be easier said than done.

IE6’s 29% of the total IE user base is substantial and it does not help much that Microsoft says that the total market share of IE6 is just about half of the share of IE8, which is bad enough from the view of an upgrade cycle. We should not forget that IE6 was phased out about 4 years ago.

While Microsoft may, in theory, quickly transition the IE8 user base to IE9, it will be largely be locked out of IE6, as it appears that the market share losses of IE6 are slowing and it could take easily another 18 months until IE6 will drop below 5%, provided that we are not seeing further slowdowns. If IE6 is any indication, then there may also be some IE7 users who are just happy with their browser now and will not upgrade unless they are buying a new PC. By default, IE9 may not be able to access more than 20% of the IE user base when it launches later this year or early in 2011 (the first beta is due on September 15.)

IE9: A great browser that could use different marketing

When IE9 was first announced as a platform preview and I had a chance to the software, I felt that Microsoft had a good shot at getting back into the browser game. It even posted continuous information about its browser development on a highly technical basis and showed insight that there are some very talented people worked on Microsoft’s new browser. What we have seen so far leaves no doubt that IE9 will be Microsoft’s best and most innovative browser yet, with a significance that rivals the launch of IE4 (which, coincidentally, was Microsoft’s first HTML 4 browser while IE9 is Microsoft’s first HTML 5 browser.)

Personally, I have no doubt that IE9 will be a browser that can be as good of a choice as Firefox or Chrome. What is interesting to note, however, that Microsoft has this special talent to always shoot itself in the foot. Remember when Zune came out and someone thought that brown is a great color for an MP3 player? Or Origami, which was a great concept for a compact portable (tablet) PC back in 2006, but the marketing department forgot to ask the engineers what the device in fact will be able to do? Or Vista, which was marketed as the best selling operating system, but was terribly flawed? When Microsoft’s marketing messages get a bit off track, we have learned to look a bit closer and be suspicious, which is the case with IE8/9 now again, especially if we look at the Exploring IE blog. IE9 will need evangelists to succeed and evangelists are often attracted by a certain kind of enthusiasm, especially in a dynamic field like web browsers. Market share posts that try to twit an actual scenario and try justify a market share loss don’t do that.

I am not quote sure why we even need the Exploring IE blog that almost seems to be slowing down the IE9 launch. Showing off the innovation in IE9 could be much more effective way to create enthusiasm and a word of mouth campaign that might be more beneficial to Microsoft than trying to convince them to upgrade by scaring them.

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