As much as Microsoft would want IE9 to be a striking success and as much as we already know that Microsoft will find a numeric way to call IE9 the most popular browser in the universe, we also know that Microsoft cannot touch almost one third of today’s IE user base. Microsoft needs to stop throwing smoke bombs and find different ways how to deal with IE6. If it does not, IE6 will derail Microsoft’s browser agenda and screw the company’s browser and cloud strategy for years to come.

Once a month, we are getting browser market share updates that rely on metrics you may agree with or not. What is fascinating about those numbers, however, is the fact that both Net Applications and StatCounter are supplying more in-depth data about global and regional browser usage than was the case at any other time. That data reveals a great deal of user scenarios, but it also opens the doors to data twisting, number picking and reality distortion.

It is particularly interesting how Microsoft is lately engaging in attempts to use its blogs to distribute selected market share numbers to users and media that paint a picture that isn’t exactly reflecting truth. Personally, I do not mind if PR is picking information that favors its own products, but you need to do that in a way so fact-checking isn’t questioning the direction of your argument.

Browser market share and number twisting: What does it mean?

Discussing browser market share always forces you to walk on thin ice. Your claims aren’t solid and are based on numbers that are, in a best case scenario, based on a very specific user base that represents a fraction of the entire Internet population. Net Applications has become the most often quoted analytics firm that provides market numbers, followed by StatCounter. What we know about those statistics are that they are raw numbers of monitored websites, but there is no information on other essential data such as margin of error, for example.

Both Net Applications and StatCounter provide a huge pool of numbers that is open to interpretation. Most of the time, you can pick one specific item to prove your point. In Microsoft’s case, for example, that would be the statement that IE8 remains the fastest growing browser worldwide. That claim is based on Net Applications’ data set, which is not provided in its entirety free of charge anymore, so we have to take Microsoft’s word for it. For example, Microsoft says that IE8 has a share of 32.04% now, which compares to the raw 27.90% number that is shown by Net Applications (which covers only the basic IE8, but excludes all special versions of IE8, such as IE8 Compatibility Mode browsers or the Trans World Edition. IE8 comes in a total of five editions and the four that are hidden apparently have a market share of 4.14%.)

You have to love Microsoft’s marketing pitch stating “For August, IE share worldwide decreased 0.34% to 60.40% worldwide, but in a world of customer choice we are pleased that people are continuing to choose Internet Explorer 8 three times more often than other browsers when they make that move.”

Microsoft says that IE8 gained 1.17 points of share last month, about three times the absolute gain of Chrome. However, Microsoft does not mention that its percentage growth is behind Chrome. The company carefully mentions that IE6 and IE7 surrender share faster than IE8 can pick it up and that a net loss is to be expected because of that. We are not quite sure how that reasoning makes sense.

What is the most significant news for Microsoft in the August data from our point of view is not so much the gain of IE8, but its relative position to IE7 and especially IE6, which has been a problem for Microsoft for some time and is becoming much more serious as the competitive browser landscape grows. As far as statistics are concerned, IE6 still has a market share of 16.18%, according to Net Applications (16.99% including fragments); IE6’s share is at 16.77%, according to StatCounter. In a best case scenario for Microsoft, that means that IE6 still covers about 29% of the total IE user base. IE7 was released almost four years ago, in October 2006, and has currently a share 10.89%, according to Net Applications (16.33% in StatCounter’s charts.) In both cases, IE6 users appear to be happy with what they have and they are in no hurry to switch to IE8.

Read on the next page: The IE6 Problem and IE9′s Limited Opportunity

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