Analysis: Has Apple Lost Its Touch?

Wolfgang Gruener in Products on September 01

Do we ever get tired of new iPods? Apple has announced a plethora of new products earlier today, ranging from a new iPod Shuffle, iPod Nano and iPod Touch, to a new Apple TV, a new iTunes with a new logo, a social network, and two new iOS versions. There was no shortage of news, but, for the first time in years, we wonder whether Apple may have announced the wrong products at the wrong time. In fact, we believe that Apple has exposed itself, and missed to upgrade its products effectively, which gives its rivals a chance to take a shot and challenge Apple’s leadership in key markets.

There are few who do not envy Apple and the empire it has built. It seems to be indestructible and appears to be immune to the negative effects of economic climate. It has been clear that only Apple itself can stop the growth and it would need to shoot itself in the foot. Conceivably, a blunder is a matter of time. Today’s keynote left us somewhat confused about Apple’s strategy and intentions. The wow factor that is such an important part of each Apple presentation was not there. The products seem to be nice, but they aren’t sexy and they will not drive extra buyers to Apple. Apple may have missed a big opportunity today and may be more vulnerable than it has been in many years.

What was announced?

Apple has three new iPods. The Shuffle gets its click wheel and square shape back. It is offered in four colors and with 2 GB of storage for $49. The Nano gets also a square shape, but loses the click wheel in favor of a touchscreen and an interface that looks like iOS, but is not iOS. It will be available for $149 (8 GB) and $179 (16 GB). The new iPod Touch is thinner, gets the A4 processor, the Retina display, the gyroscope, the new iOS 4.1 with Gamecenter integration, Facetime support with a front-facing camera as well as 720p HD video recording. 8GB are priced at $229, 32 GB at $299 and 64 GB at $399.

Apple also announced the new iOS 4.1, which supports HDR photos, TV show rentals, Gamecenter, and HD video upload via Wi-Fi. The company provided a peek at iOS 4.2, which is focused at the iPad and includes wireless printing as well audio-video-photo streaming via AirPlay (previously Airtunes). The new OS will be released in November.

iTunes 10 was announced as well with a new interface. The big deal was Ping, Apples Facebook-like social network that aims to attract people to share their passion for music. And there is a new Apple TV that is now the size of a (square) black hockey puck and is priced at $99. The device will only allow content rental and does not store movies locally. TV shows cost 99 cents a piece, while HD movies rent for $4.99 (720p). The device also connects to Netflix, Flickr, YouTube and MobileMe.

iPod: Nice to have

Another iPod update. But what exactly makes the new Shuffle and the new Nano more valuable than the preceding devices? The addiction of the clickwheel on the Shuffle or the multi-touchscreen on the tiny Nano? The new colors? The new shapes? We have no idea what Apple was thinking. The iPod Classic, by the way, is finally dead.

iPod Shuffle 2010

iPod Shuffle 2010

We believe that the new entry-level iPods will not convince many iPod owners to buy the new devices unless the old ones break and it will not bring in many more iPod buyers who will not have bought an iPod – old or new – anyway. In effect, it is a solid refresh, but we do not quite understand the purpose of it. Apple praises the new Nano as a small iPod Touch, but there is clearly more to the iPod Touch than a touchscreen. The Nano looks like it is running iOS, but it is not. For a touchscreen device, we believe it is too small and it cannot be used as conveniently as the old Nano. There is a limit how small a touchscreen device can be and the Nano may have crossed that mark. Also, imagine how often you use the player just with your fingers and not your eyes: The physical shape of the clickwheel allows you to navigate content without looking at the device – which is a great feature especially when you are working out. The new Nano makes this task much more difficult and basically eliminates its use during a 5K run.

iPod Nano 2010

iPod Nano 2010

Visually, Apple has moved the Nano down-market, but it is still priced with a hefty premium. Even if it has 16 GB memory, $180 is too much money for a small MP3 player with limited capabilities – capabilities that put it at the very bottom of the market. The Shuffle is priced right at $49, but the Nano is too expensive. This is clearly a $99 device and not a $150 product. A $180 iPod Nano is utter nonsense.

The problem for the iPod Shuffle and Nano is that Apple has reached market saturation levels as these products continue to address the same markets. In those markets, these upgrades are nice to have, but they are not must have products anymore – at least for those who already have an iPod. Apple needs to move the iPods into different market segments if it really wants to keep iPod sales going. Right now, it just feels like Apple is trying too hard to keep the Shuffles and Nanos sexy.

The true future iPod may be the iPod Touch. It is, according to Apple, the iPod that has growing unit sales and it is the iPod that keeps the ASP for the iPod family high. It has received a solid upgrade that should push it deeper into the gaming market and help Apple to keep it relevant, even if we would have liked to see an iPhone 4-like design. If you are looking for an iPod for your workout or your kids, the entry-level Shuffle or the small Nano may be the way to go. In all other cases, you should make the jump to the Touch.

iPod Touch 2010

iPod Touch 2010

Read on the next page:  Ping: Ping? Seriously?

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