Gartner has downgraded its PC shipment forecast by almost 2 points to 15.3% for the second half 2010. The market research firm is predicting a notable slowdown especially in that period and says that it will be challenging for businesses to delay new PC purchases any further.
Apple iPad
Gartner believes that worldwide Pc shipments will reach 367.8 million units, up 19.2% from 308.3 million in 2009. The growth is due to major gains in the first half of the year, while growth will be slowing to only 15.3% in the second half, the company said. “There is no doubt that consumer, if not business PC demand has slowed relative to expectations in mature markets,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “Recent dramatic shifts in the PC supply chain were in no small part a reaction to fears of a sharp slowdown in mature-market demand. However, suppliers’ risk-aversion is as much a factor in these shifts as any actual downshift in demand.”
Gartner says that consumer demand will stay strong as consumers are now seeing PCs as a necessity and not as a luxury anymore. However “businesses will find it very difficult to delay PC replacements further. The age of the professional PC installed base is already at an all-time high.”
Atwal said that further delaying purchases will risk an alienation of employees, more service requests and support costs, as well as higher migration costs when they migrate to Windows 7. “The bottom line is that businesses need to refresh their PCs sooner rather than later,” Atwal said. “Thus, the full bloom of the long-awaited professional PC refresh can’t be more than a few quarters ahead.”
Netbooks are not a driving force of the PC market anymore. Mini-notebooks’ impact on the PC market has peaked and is now waning, according to Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner. Mini-notebooks’ share of mobile PC shipments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2010, falling under 18%. In 2009, they accounted for about 20% of all mobile shipments. By 2014, they will only hold 10%, Gartner predicts.
“We still think the mini-notebook has a place in the mobile PC market, but not as a substitute for a standard mobile PC. Indeed, the recent decline in mini-notebooks’ share of the mobile PC market reflects a general realization among buyers that mini-notebooks are less-than-perfect substitutes for standard low-end laptops,” Mr. Vasquez said. “Buyers who once would have bought a mini-notebook based solely on its low price now seem more inclined to buy a low-end standard notebook, especially since the prices of the two have converged. Mini-notebooks are slowly but surely carving out a market niche for themselves as companion devices. However, the emergence of media tablets is a growing threat to that niche.”
Interestingly, Gartner said that the iPad “hasn’t had much of an impact on mini-notebook units so far, if only because it is generally priced higher than most mini-notebooks.” However, tablets are still believed to be a threat to netbooks, especially when “lower-priced iPad imitations will begin to take larger bites out of mini-notebook units as they are released next year.”
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