August has arrived. Time for a browser market share update. There is quite a bit of news this month, which, depending on your view, can be modified in virtually any direction you prefer. Microsoft likes the version in which IE has gained market share and pushed back Firefox and Chrome. Mozilla may like the one that embarrasses Microsoft and shows that it is about to overtake IE in Europe and Google will most likely state that there is a very good chance that it has now more than 10% of the market. Which one do you prefer? Pick one.
Editor’s note: Stitching together the browser market share story in a reasonable and credible way has become a bit more difficult this month and will require you to be a bit more flexible, which means that there is no definite way to determine which browser has how much market share, due to the lack of a coherent data set. Net Applications, which we have used to compile our market analysis in previous months, is now limiting free access to its browser data. What is still available is a rather small data set that cannot be used for detailed browser market share interpretation anymore. So please take the NetApplications data with a grain of salt, especially as far as the market share of Internet Explorer is concerned. I decided to increase my focus on the data that is provided by StatCounter, which has different numbers in its market share estimates, but has historically agreed on the general trend that was shown by Net Applications.
Update, August 3: I was made aware StatCounter has considerably revised its data on August 3. The current data set does not indicate anymore that Firefox may overtake IE in the near future, but indicates a rather stable market share in the range of 38%, while IE stands at about 43%. StatCounter still claims that Firefox 3.6 is the most popular browser in Europe with a share of 29.85% versus a 27.82% share of IE8. There was no explanation from StatCounter what the error in the original numbers was.
Historically, of course, does not necessarily mean that the two market research firms will always agree on browser market share trends, as it is the case for July. Both firms show considerably different numbers in terms of market share for virtually every browser as well as different trends as far as IE, Firefox, Safari and Chrome are concerned.
Version 1: Microsoft buys market share, Delayed Chrome 6 hurts overall Chrome share
The first version of the most recent result comes from Net Applications. Microsoft has paid close attention to Net Applications lately, especially since Net Applications’ data has been picking up on Microsoft’s IE8 advertising campaign. According to Net Applications, the campaign is working very well. IE now stands at 60.74%, up from 60.32% in June and up from a 10-year low of 59.69% in May. While IE was able to gain market share in June only in North America, the web campaign is reaching through to a global effect now. Microsoft’s Ryan Gavin blogged shortly after the release of the data:
“Net Applications reports overall Internet Explorer share grew 0.42% worldwide in July, while Firefox lost 0.90% share and Chrome dipped 0.08% in share. Most interesting is the fact that Internet Explorer 8 continues to be the fastest growing browser with a 0.98% increase worldwide in July – and now represents more than 30% of browser usage worldwide. In the US, Internet Explorer 8 picked up share for the third month in a row. As I’ve mentioned in an earlier blog post, usage share is simply one of several ways we measure our progress with Internet Explorer. Ultimately, we know customers have a choice when it comes to the browser they use, and that choice has a lot to do with the good work that developers and our partners do to build a better Web with Internet Explorer.”
I wouldn’t go as far as Gavin and state that more advertising money equals progress with the browser. However, Gavin may have more data available than we do and, from the data that is publicly available, it is impossible to clearly understand the market share gain of IE. Microsoft’s IE6 is offered in four versions (from which Net Applications reveals one), IE7 in four versions (from which Net Applications reveals one) and IE8 in five versions (from which Net Applications reveals one as well.) The most common version of IE8 now holds a share of 26.87%, according to Net Applications, while the general version of IE7 is at 11.43% and the general version of IE6 at 16.97%. IE7 is still losing share faster than IE6 and IE8 seems to picking up share now at a slightly faster pace than IE6 and IE7 drop. However, the emphasis here is on the word “seems”, as Net Applications’ public IE data represent only 91.03% of the actual IE user base. More than 5 percentage points have to be guessed and that is getting us into rather murky waters.
Firefox, on the other hand, is in a ditch and can’t free itself anymore, according to Net Applications. It is now at 22.91%, down from a high of 24.72% in November 2009. The problem seems to be Firefox 3.6, which can’t convert enough users from Firefox 3.5. While Firefox 3.5 lost 0.81 points of market share in July, 3.6 gained only 0.16 points. Chrome has also hit a roadblock in Net Applications’ data and dropped from 7.24% to 7.16% between June and July. Considering the fact that Google was posting double-digit growth rates until two months ago, this is a significant change in Chrome’s trend. Safari added 0.24% and is now at 5.09%, which is the first time Safari has jumped over the 5% mark. Opera is at 2.45%, the highest share in more than 3 years.
If I had to guess why Chrome is stalling and surrendering share, I would point to the fact that Chrome 6 needs to come out of beta now. Chrome’s strongest growth has been seen when a new version has come into the final beta phase, which seems to the time when many Chrome users are adopting the browser. However, Chrome 6 has been stuck for three months in a developer version and a beta is long overdue. Actually, it is more likely that Chrome 6 will just skip the beta phase and go to the final in August right away. If the trend continues, we should see the market share jump again in August, especially since Chrome 6 comes with a myriad of UI changes as well as more speed improvements.
Version 2: IE to drop below Firefox in Europe, Chrome is past 10%!
If you don’t like IE, then I suggest to ignore Net Applications’ data this month and cite StatCounter instead. According to StatCounter, IE has dropped to 50.89% this month, while Firefox has climbed to 32.16%. Chrome leaped to 10.75%, while Safari dropped to 3.35% and Opera increased its share to 2.07%. What makes StatCounter’s data so attractive is the fact that we can separate the browsers not only into versions, but also into geographic usage.
If we look at data in North America alone, then we see that IE is more attractive in this region than it is globally. Firefox and Chrome are less attractive while we are clearly in love with Apple’s Safari. IE is listed with 52.59%, Firefox with 28.47%, Chrome with 9.71% and Safari with 7.45%. However, if we change continents, we get dramatically different pictures. Firefox is nearly as popular as IE in Europe now, Chrome and Opera are vastly more popular than in the U.S, while Europeans could care less about Safari. IE is listed with 40.89%, Firefox with 39.47% (the trend indicates that Firefox may jump past IE next month), Chrome with 10.82%, Opera with 4.6% and Safari with 3.3%. By the way, Chrome is most popular in Africa, where it stands at 10.99%.
Firefox’ popularity in Europe is based on an obscenely high market share in Germany where the browser holds 60.88% of the market, according to StatCounter. IE has only 25.0% in Germany and Chrome only 5.48%, Opera 4.6% and Safari 2.9%.
If we are looking at browser versions alone, there is a similar discrepancy. In North America, IE8 holds 36.58% and IE7 12.76%. Firefox 3.6 is at 22.13% while Chrome is at 9.46% and is now apparently almost as popular as IE7. In Europe, however, the most popular browser is Firefox 3.6 with a share of 30.99%, followed by IE8 with 28.01%, Chrome 5 with 10.37% and IE7 with 10.02%. In Germany, Firefox 3.6 currently holds 49.2% of the market, according to Net Applications. We are not aware of any other browser that is dominating any other market in a similar way.
So why would we care about Europe? Because the browser developers have to care: North America has an estimated Internet population of 259 million users, while Europe is at about 426 million users. Conceivably, the European market is much more interesting and important to Microsoft, Mozilla and Google than North America. We should not forget Asia with an estimated Internet population of 789 million users: In Asia, IE holds 57.4%, Firefox 29.25%, Chrome 10.06%, Opera 1.52% and Safari 1.0%, according to StatCounter.
Pick your winner
The July market share game is not as clear cut as Microsoft’s Ryan Gavin may want it to be. This month, I have some doubt about the Net Applications data, since they are somewhat incomplete and hide what is going on with IE. StatCounter’s data contradict Net Applications’ findings that IE is actually gaining. I tend to believe that IE8 is gaining share in North America, but I personally have a hard time that this is true for the entire globe. IE8 is a mature browser and if you haven’t installed it yet, you will need a good reason to do so. That reason maybe advertising, it may be an operating system upgrade from Windows XP or Vista to Windows 7. But beyond that, there is little reasoning behind the market share increase, especially since there are four better browsers available than IE8 at this time. It’s a shame that we can’t dig deeper anymore into Net Applications’ database.
StatCounter’s findings are substantially different this month and there is no possibility to determine what is accurate and what not. So, if you like IE, quote Net Applications and go with StatCounter if you like a different browser. I picked the story of Firefox’s success in Europe, obviously.
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