Successes, Failures

Is there anyone who is competent enough to judge where Ballmer has failed? It is rather superficial to claim that Vista was one of Ballmer’s most critical mistakes. There are few business leaders in the world who are qualified to run virtually any business in the world. Ballmer is one of them. He is often criticized for the stagnating stock price of Microsoft, but if we blame the stock price on him, we would have to fire lots of other CEOs first. Analysts, moody investors, the economy and many other Microsoft employees are just as guilty as Steve Ballmer for the mediocre stock price. Ballmer’s bad luck is that he is the CEO and it is most trivial to blame the CEO if things just do not work out. We often forget that Microsoft is still the money printing machine it has always been and Microsoft employees who reportedly complain about Ballmer still make a decent living. Has anyone actually thanked Ballmer for that?

When we look at Ballmer’s successes and failures, we tend to look at products alone. And, of course, as CEO, he takes the responsibility. Ballmer’s problem is that there are many more failures than successes. Vista was a disaster. IE sucks. Microsoft should be concerned about its pace of implementing an effective cloud computing pitch and available products. Kin was an embarrassment. Windows Phone 7 is possibly already dead before it is available. Now we hear that Ballmer pushes Windows 7 tablets, even if common sense suggests that Microsoft should leave tablets alone. Windows 7 works, even if it is only the Vista Vista should have been. Bing is doing alright. Ballmer stopped the Yahoo acquisition just in time. The most promising product is the Xbox 360.

However, do those failures and successes really matter? If Steve Ballmer had a blockbuster today, would our perception change? No.

It is too late for Ballmer to establish a legacy for him and to succeed as a result. Which is a shame, given how passionate he may be about his Microsoft.

As Successor To Gates, Who Can Succeed?

Succeeding someone like Bill Gates could be seen as an opportunity, but some may see it as a burden that is too heavy to carry. Conceivably, the next Microsoft CEO could be seen as the successor to Gates and not to Ballmer, given that there is no legacy that is left behind by Steve Ballmer. Succeeding icons like Gates is a massive task and a successor needs to change the company to succeed.

Think about Intel. Intel lost its charismatic face when co-founder Andy Grove dropped out as CEO. Craig Barrett was chosen as successor and the transition was somewhat smoothly. Paul Otellini has done a great job as a business person and entirely revamped the Intel he took over from Barrett. But even if Intel today is not what it once was, the passion has been lost and the transitions to new CEOs have created a rather stale and cold image. Grove’s legacy had a fire that Barrett and Otellini cannot match. In my personal opinion, Intel had the perfect new CEO in Pat Gelsinger, who led Intel’s engineering through Intel’s greatest time of growth and built a legacy for himself as the face behind Intel’s 386 and 486 processors. Both Intel and Gelsinger missed the chance to establish a new passionate leadership that could infect Intel’s customers. Gelsinger is president and COO at EMC today.

If we look at Apple, I already feel sorry for the next Apple CEO. The next CEO will always be measured against Jobs, who positioned himself as the inventor of all relevant icons of the Apple world - the Mac, iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad. It may be a lucrative job, but following Steve Jobs may be more difficult than to succeed Bill Gates. However, if marketing chief Phil Schiller is in fact looking into this job, he may only have to look at Steve Ballmer to see his fate. In fact, it may be worse for him than it is for Ballmer: The first failure will prompt analysts, investors, journalists, and customers to ask Steve Jobs to return and Phil Schiller to leave.

The requirements for a CEO are typically described as the need for a vision, talent for macro-management, the ability to build a strong team, a sense for trends, charisma and the ability to represent the company on the outside. It is not up to us to judge Ballmer on these characteristics, but we do notice that his ability to sense trends may not be the best these days anymore. Microsoft needs to be in cloud computing to help Windows survive. It is years behind where it should be. And: Microsoft is irrelevant in mobile operating systems.

However, if we judge Ballmer by what has been presented to us by Microsoft’s rather distant corporate PR structure, then we can’t see much that is in favor of Ballmer, except his business management abilities and cleverness to earn two dollars where the average CEO may only earn one. That, however, won’t help Ballmer to stop the criticism he is facing today. Ballmer will have to face that his time at Microsoft may be over, for the good of the company and for the good of himself.

In the end, there may be nothing left that can save Steve Ballmer anymore.

Microsoft needs a leader who can reignite the fire that was once protected by Bill Gates’ persona. Microsoft needs a leader who will take risks and has the ability to change Microsoft into a company it is not today. A company that needs to be Microsoft 2.0 and not just Microsoft 1.1.

Steve, You Have Done Enough. Time To Enjoy Life.

Seriously, how many times can you hear that you need to go? How many times is enough? We know that the media can create immense pressure. If it pushed Apple CEO Steve Jobs to admit iPhone antenna problems, sort of, then it is absolutely possible that it can force Ballmer out of his job. Ballmer’s job is protected by the board of directors and Bill Gates himself and a step down may, in the end, have to be a personal decision.

Steve Ballmer may not have done enough to remain CEO, but he has done too much to be exposed to the constant shelling from the media and analysts. Microsoft has turned him into one of the richest people in this world, he has given enough of his time to Microsoft and he personally can be happy that he has touched the lives of more than a billion people. There aren’t many people who can claim that, even if we may not miss and remember Ballmer when he is gone.

If I was Ballmer, I would be looking for a decent successor, talk to Ray Ozzie to think about the CEO job, announce Ozzie as co-CEO in 2012 and prepare my exit for 2013. There may be a life after Microsoft and Ballmer surely deserves to enjoy it.

Oh, and please, Steve, drop the Windows 7 tablet idea.

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