Analysis – Have you been wondering whether you should take the plunge into 3D TV or whether the investment in an Internet-enabled LED TV may be the smarter choice? History tells us that forward looking purchases may be more expensive, but pay off in the long run, but 3D TVs do not live up to their promise yet and if you aren’t sunbathing in extra money, they may be better left alone for now.
Is it just me or are we experiencing a 3D overload lately? Games and TV are just staking out their opportunity now, as movie theaters are already banking on 3D as an attractive revenue stream. If you are going with the flow, then you already know what to expect from 3D and it isn’t exactly the wow effect you may have experienced the first time you put on paper 3D glasses.
3D isn’t 3D in many cases and what is described as 3D may not really be 3D these days. Think of it as the “Full HD” package that was sold to you two or three years ago, which meant that you get HD resolution, but it was not entirely clear what HD it would be, 720p/1080i or 1080p resolution. Just like HD, 3D is a highly subjective experience, but unlike HD, the differences between 2D and 3D may not immediately be apparent in many cases and, over time, the 3D effect may be lost within the movie experience.
The value proposition
What exactly is the value of 3D? The value is typically seen in a viewers ability to immerse herself/himself in a move, to create the illusion to be part of the story as graphics develop in a three-dimensional room. Personally, that experience may have been best shown in titles such as Disney’s Up! Or in James Cameron’s Avatar.
However, if you have seen Toy Story 3 in 3D, you may question the value of 3D: It is barely visible and if you watch the movie with an expectation of 3D, it may even be forgettable. For Toy Story 3, 3D was rather an annoyance as you have to wear glasses and it may have had less value than the 2D version as a result. Even if you look at Avatar, 3D tends to wear off over the time of the movie. The wow-effect is replaces with what you get used to. Interestingly enough, when I picked up the Avatar DVD and watched it at home in 2D, I did not miss the 3D effects one bit – in fact, it did not even occur to me what value 3D really had in the first place.
3D’s problem is that it is a nice-to-have feature, while HDTV has quickly turned into a must-have feature. The dramatic increase in picture quality was apparent, while 3D has a somewhat shaky performance today, is rather expensive and inconvenient.
3D Upsides
There is no doubt that 3D has made a splash and is capturing consumer interest. If you are curious in 3D, there is nothing that keeps you from buying and experiencing 3D at home today.
Content is usually the critical criteria for a technology to survive and die and it appears that we are seeing a decent array of content pieces in the market. BSkyB announced today the creation of a consumer 3D TV channel, Warner Home Video announced the first Blu-ray 3D titles (“IMAX: Under the Sea 3D”, “IMAX: Deep Sea 3D” and “IMAX: Space Station 3D”) today, which are bundled with 3D TVs and Blu-ray players offered by LG and Sony. There are camcorders that record videos in 3D (such as Panasonic’s HDC-SDT750 with attached 3D lens for $1400). And, in some cases, you may even be able to pick up a free Playstation 3 with 3D support, if you purchase a 3D TV.
3D games, arguably the most attractive 3D consumer segment, is also gaining traction with some 3D titles already available today and major titles, such as GT5, following later this year. There is a wide range of available TVs, with starting prices of less than $1000 for 720p plasma 3D TVs from Samsung up to $6000 for the top-of the line TVs. So there is definitely traction, possibly more than what we have seen with Blu-ray in its initial year (2006).
3D Hurdles
The adoption of 3D TVs is very slow. According to iSuppli, only 4.2 million 3D TVs will be sold in 2010 – globally. The market will grow to 12.9 million next year and to 60.5 million by 2014, the market researchers believe. Even in 2014, iSuppli said, Internet enabled (IE) flat panel TVs will outsell 3Ds significantly – 148.3 million IE TVs are expected to be sold annually by then. The market trend is clearly against 3D and IE is expected to show much stronger growth than 3D.
iSuppli says that 3D’s problems are cost, content and availability, which may be solved over time, but there may be not of time for the current generation of 3D TVs to build a compelling value proposition until the next generation appears ante portas.
Conceivably, cost could kill 3D all by itself. A decent 3D LCD TV will cost you about $2500 in the entry-level region, but you should budget for much more if you are looking for a family experience. Samsung charges about $200 for a pair of rechargeable 3D glasses, Sony has battery-powered glasses for $150 and requires you to purchase a $50 3D sync unit. Add to that the fact that you will have to wear 3D glasses while you are watching or playing, 3D is an extremely expensive and annoying experience. And I don’t even mention that we look utterly ridiculous wearing those glasses while watching TV.
Experience
The payoff could be a great experience that blows your socks off, an experience that could convince you to buy and wear those glasses. But I already mentioned that the experience is not equal with every 3D movie. If you read over 3D game reviews, your enthusiasm may also be cooling down. There have been plenty of reports that the upcoming GT5 car simulator GT5 adds very little value in 3D, in fact so little that you will have to focus on the fact that it is 3D in order to be able to notice the presence of 3D. I have to admit that I have not seen GT5 in 3D, but if that reflects the general user experience, then 3D fails to provide a compelling value, even if it is just one game. For $3000, you better know what you have purchased and you surely don’t want to be in a situation where you have to remind yourself that you have a 3D every time you turn it on. The step up to 3D from 2D is much less significant than the step up from SD to HD.
Recommendation: IE LED
If you are debating what to buy, our recommendation is to look into a decent IE LED TV. The technology is mature, prices are coming down and the functionality to be able to connect to Internet services such as Netflix or Skype is very compelling. In many cases, an upscale IE LED TV will cost only about half of what you would have to spend on a similar 3D enabled TV.
When purchasing a new TV, keep in mind that this is first-generation 3D consumer technology. There will be many who are waiting to see how it develops. If you live on a budget, this may not be for you. We hear that 3D TVs that will not require you to buy glasses are only about 3 years out and this may be the 3D technology you may want to consider instead. Especially since 3D TVs may be available for well less than $1000 by then.
Today’s 3D TVs are nice to have. Not more and not less.
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