If we believe analysts, then it is Microsoft that has won this year’s E3 race for the most admired announcements and technology. Kinect is the most progressive new technology we have seen at E3 this year and it would take quite a bit of self-sabotage at Microsoft to screw up the launch of Kinect on November 4. However, there are a few roadblocks ahead that could impact the adoption of Kinect.

Limited camera and sensor capability

Kinect will live and die because of its cameras. It’s the heart of the system and key to what Kinect can do and what not. If the camera system and sensor do not deliver, Kinect could end up as a disaster for Microsoft. There are few tech specs available, but we know that the system is capable of as 640×480 pixel resolution and is able to differentiate and capture objects with a spatial horizontal resolution of 3mm (0.01”). The depth resolution will is able to differentiate objects in 1 cm (0.4”) increments. The image output is 60 fps. The range of the sensor is the clear limitation: It only works in a range between 0.8m to 3.5m (2.4ft to 10ft) to the user. Imagine large family rooms and up to four players. There will be hiccups.

Limited body recognition

Tied to the camera capability is what appears to be very limited body recognition. According to IGN, Kinect’s sensor cannot recognize skeletal movements (Microsoft says 48 skeletal points, down to fingers, are tracked) while the gamer is sitting, which means that Kinect games will only work when you are standing up, even if you are trying to navigate through menus using just your hands. If you sit down, Kinect will only work with voice recognition. Imagine that playing a simple game while you actually sit on the couch will not work anymore.

Legacy control and compatibility

Kinect will require the user to radically change with the technology to control games. Imagine driving a car without holding a physical device in your hands, which is what we are told will be the case with Kinect. Such a scenario is rather unnatural and not what Kinect really is. It will be tough for Microsoft to market controller accessories for a technology that claims to get rid of controllers, but, in the end, will require devices to enable a natural experience, such as guns or steering wheels. In many cases, the old Xbox controller is what you will want to use and Kinect’s value may be very limited to some gamers. A minor issue is compatibility that is rather an annoyance than a true sale barrier: If you pair Kinect with an old Xbox 360, you will need an extra power outlet behind your TV for Kinect. Especially in family rooms where there is already a lack of available outlets, this is a sure you-got-to-be-kidding moment.

Content

At least in the short term, content for Kinect will be different from the content that has made the Xbox 360 successful. Metal Gear Solid or Halo: Reach were not demonstrated with Kinect. Kinect is not a hardcore gaming controller. It’s a casual, general and social gaming utility. Hardcore gamers still will want to use a controller, steering wheel or other physical accessory for a realistic game experience.

Changing content will be one of Microsoft biggest challenges and it will have some work to do to convince its hardcore gamer base that Kinect is good for everyone and not just 100 million casual / general gamers Microsoft wants to attract. Personally, I am also wondering what impact new content that will always require physical movements will have: Let’s be serious, video gaming has little to do with physical workout. Kinect games will require much more movements, which should be good news for our body, but are we willing to accept that?

Pricing

When Microsoft announced the launch date of Kinect, but stayed mum on the price, I was wondering why that may be. Is Microsoft still calculating all those expenses from manufacturing, packaging, shipping, marketing, etc. or is there something else? Could it be that Microsoft was waiting for Sony to announce the pricing for Move, which is, realistically, out of reach for many households? $350-$450 for a complete 4-player controller system is just obscene. Previously, it was discussed that $149 for Kinect, which supports up to four players would be too much. Sony has the advantage that its system is modular and a basic 1-player upgrade set is priced at $99 and you add more as you go along. Microsoft needs to carefully choose the price for Kinect and while $149 for the system is cheaper than the comparable Sony system, it is clear that, to the consumer, $149 just does not look as good as $99. Microsoft should seriously consider pricing Kinect at $99. A price that is too high, even if it just the consumer perception, is sure to kill Kinect right away.

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