Some trends are obvious and not difficult to predict. As we are getting closer to the June 13 demonstration of Project Natal, which could be called “Wave”, it is more and more apparent how powerful Microsoft’s new technology will be. Nintendo and Sony may have trouble to keep the pace with an Xbox 360 that is relaunched and set to win the current generation console race.

Several websites have come out this week and claimed connections to reliable sources that now say that Project Natal will cost $149, which is about 50% more than the rumored $99 price so far. Also, one website said it learned what the name of Natal will be – Wave.

I leave that one up to you decide, but I will say that Wave would not only be incredibly boring and underselling Natal, but border to self-destruction that goes far beyond the rather silly decision to paint the Zune brown. Some may also remember that there is a already a Microsoft Wave website, which basically talks about new products offered by Microsoft – with natal being one of them. I believe it is rather unlikely that Natal will be called Wave.

If the $149 price tag, however, is true, then Microsoft may be right where it needs to be to make the controller a success – especially financially. Given the entirely changed user interface and the new applications Natal will enable, it is reasonable to describe the technology as a product refresh, or, as Steve Ballmer put it in 2009, as a “new Xbox”. At $149, you would be talking about a major upgrade and it may not be very difficult for Microsoft to ell natal at a profit right out of the gate.

To be able to refresh what is essentially an old console – the Xbox 360 turns 5 this year – and entirely change the gaming experience is a massive effort and it appears that Microsoft is on track to do just that. And for $149 Natal is darn close to the $199 of the Wii and the $199 of its Xbox 360 Arcade, which, conceivably, could be described as a new console by itself – at least if you only look at the game experience. Rumors currently state that there will also be an Xbox 360 Arcade/Natal bundle for $299.

When Natal is released, Microsoft could, conceivably, turn the entire video gaming market around. Suddenly it is Nintendo that looks old, Sony that appears to be confused with a half-baked Move controller and Microsoft that is in the future.  Now it appears that the Xbox 360 is the console with the highest potential out there, especially since market data from NPD suggests that the Xbox is still selling very well.

Sony’s PS3 seems to be gaining traction lately, but the Move controller may not be enough. Sony executives were quoted saying that Move is a complimentary product, an accessory. That is substantially different from what Microsoft is trying to do. Personally, I would like to play back those corporate meetings during which the concept of the Move was decided. What exactly is happening there that the company comes up with a light bulb flashing and an overly complex version of the Nintendo controller idea? What in the world were they thinking?

Sony’s striking problem is content for the PS3. Can Move spark a new way of content that will differentiate the console from the Wii. Unlikely. For too long, Sony and its partners ignored the need for family-fun games and had their bets on violent games that, at least if you are a parent who in fact pays attention to ESRB ratings, locked many potential gamers out of the market. Adding HD to what is essentially a Wii concept of gaming just does not cut it anymore.

We don’t see Microsoft taking risks very often. And it is rare to see stunning ideas and innovation to come out of Redmond these days. This makes Natal so impressive. If Natal works as it is promised by Microsoft, it will make history.

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